Phys.org is a leading web-based science, research and technology news service which covers a full range of topics. Because of this, downstream valley floors initially unaffected by a lahar may later suffer increased flooding and progressive burial by remobilized sediment. The US Geological Survey publishes a "Threat Assessment" for US volcanoes, the last one in 2018. But Heinze wants to show me how far it could come. It would be hot, and it would melt the ice and snow. Please select the most appropriate category to facilitate processing of your request, Optional (only if you want to be contacted back). This sort of volume and mass moving downstream into populated area would do billions of dollars in damage. Mount Rainier A dangerous volcano with a history of deadly lahars and . Rainier. This nightmare mudflow is called a lahar. Some of these new sensors will end up in the Nisqually River valley to add to those already installed along the Puyallup River. Estimate the property damages caused by the lahar flow of Mt. Field teams were on Mount Rainier installing a new volcano monitoring station when the video of "volcanic activity" began circulating on social media, park officials said in a news release. According to the USGS, theres a much greater likelihood that landslides will trigger these mudflows: Scientists studying Mount Rainier have long recognized that the greatest hazard posed by the volcano is from landslides that begin high on its slopes and transform into mudflows or lahars.. "Videos shown are not what folks think," the Washington Emergency Management Division tweeted. Lahars from Mount Rainier can travel for tens of miles along river valleys and reach Puget Sound. Geologists use this and other evidence to assess future hazard potential and to map zones in river valleys heading on Mount Rainier that could be inundated by future lahars. 531) in approximately 15 minutes, and the Alder Lake Reservoir near the community of Elbe (pop. Making a Mount Rainier Eruption the worst Natural Disaster in American history. communities 100 km (60 miles) downwind from Mt. Shes talking about a possible eruption, which could happen in our lifetime. Lahars pose a serious natural hazard to populations surrounding volcanoes. But Washington officials quickly took to Twitter to explain what was actually happening. National Parks Traveler is a 501(c) (3) nonprofit media organization. That's because Rainier is known for causing volcanic mudflows, also known as lahars. The town of Orting is built on lahar deposits, which tells us a lahar could surge through the area again. At 14,410 feet, Mount Rainier has the highest peak in the Cascade mountain range in the western U.S. Like Mount St. Helens, Rainier is also a stratovolcano with a "very high" threat. Using their rankings, Hawaii's Klauea is considered the most hazardous thanks to a mix of people living near the volcano and how frequently it erupts. the volcano potentially the most dangerous, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. All the counties had the data in some form or another, but obtaining the data in a useable form proved challenging. The plan describes the responsibilities of agencies and how they will communicate with each other and the public during a volcanic crisis. Or maybe a train barreling down a track where no railroad tracks exist.. Petchnick has hiked and climbed all his life, including leading multiple expeditions up Mount Rainier. When officials communicate the dangers of volcanic hazards to local populations, one picture may be worth a thousand words. "Yet, no one knows for sure when, and if, it will wake up from its dormancy. Order your guide, either as an ePub ebook for your Kindle or as a PDF version. The entire world was given a violent reminder of the Pacific Northwest's explosiveness when Mount Saint Helens, about a hundred miles south of the city, erupted on May 18, 1980, with a blast that. Majestic Mount Rainier soars almost 3 miles (14,410 feet) above sea level and looms over the expanding suburbs of Seattle and Tacoma, Washington. Or maybe it only has infrequent large blasts and happens to be near a populated area? A lenticular cloud sits atop Mount Rainier on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. "The sort of behavior seen in this video is not unusual," the USGS wrote. Home; News; Reviews; Humor; Mechanics; You are here: Home / goat frais de douane A view of Mt. Because chaos during the evacuation is going to lead to more fatalities.. Rainier. But we may see some change in our lifetime. Secondary Concern: The Cascades haven't had a major eruption or . Could it be one. Hypothetical Sunset Amphitheater landslide and lahar simulation, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of Interior - U.S. Geological Survey. It also has the highest number of people in the downstream hazard zone,. Rainier has a long history of lahars. The concept of Pacific slab subduction has been advocated in many popular models as the main cause for lithospheric delamination in the eastern part of the North China Craton since Mesozoic. And, because the simulation scenarios focused on the western side of Mount Rainier, Sunset Amphitheater and the Tahoma Glacier Headwall were chosen as the most probable locations for landslides. Rainier. Volcanologists in New Zealand are constantly monitoring Ruapehu because of the crater lake and snow/ice on the volcano that could make lahars that would endanger the skiers on its slopes. "If only a small part of this ice were melted by volcanic activity, it would yield enough water to trigger enormous lahars (debris flows and mudflows that originate on a volcano)," the USGS said on its website. This mudflow likely killed over 20,000 people. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, lahars have occurred as far back as 11,000 years ago, when evidence of a mudflow apparently of landslide origin, moved across Van Trump and Paradise Parks and then down the Nisqually River., The Electron Mudflow, which took place 500 years ago, flowed 60 miles (100 km) downstream to the Puget Sound lowland. Image credit: USGS, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston, VA 20192, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 12: Pacific Islands (American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). Rainier is also only 54 miles away from Seattle. Given measurable financial factors such as land and structural property it is possible to make a good prior estimate. 53) in 50 minutes before moving into the lake to create a rise in water level ultimately overtopping the Alder Lake Dam. 44,000) lowlands, ultimately slowing, then stopping, four to five hours from its inception. Mount Rainier, an active volcano currently at rest between eruptions, is the highest peak in the Cascade Range. . Rainier. Keeping that sentiment in mind, scientists at the University at Buffalo working on volcanic hazard mitigation have left no technology untapped as they create images of past volcanic flows in order to better predict future ones. It last erupted in 1894-95, when small summit explosions were reported by observers in Seattle and Tacoma. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Tephra from the eruption fell as far away as Colorado. Even defining what we mean by "dangerous" is fraught with peril. Credit: USGS. the Science X network is one of the largest online communities for science-minded people. And not everybody wants to hear that.. Mount Rainier is behaving about as it has over the last half-million years, so all evidence suggests that the volcano will continue to erupt, grow, and collapse. These last two could happen during an eruption, get triggered by an earthquake or might occur without any warning. But at number 3 is the volcano about which I feel the most concerned: Rainier. Note: Scientists continue to reevaluate the hazard zones as they learn more about the volcano. Identify the news topics you want to see and prioritize an order. #wawx #komonews pic.twitter.com/ln6TqZ4hlS. Durant.). A model simulation showing the path of the ash cloud were the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption to happen on February 10, 2021. . Image credit: USGS Sources/Usage Explore Search Natural Hazards volcano hazards View All Science X Daily and the Weekly Email Newsletters are free features that allow you to receive your favourite sci-tech news updates. In addition, it only estimates the property values and not the overall economic impact. Rainier, when it erupts. A small eruption created a lahar that swept down the volcano and wiped the town of Armero off the map. Reports said that although lava would stop flowing near the national park's edge, it could cause avalanches and flash flooding. A question I get asked a lot (and I mean a lot) is what I think the most dangerous volcano in the United States might be. . An eruption is likely to be preceded by days to months or more of smallearthquakescentered beneath the volcano, by subtledeformationof the volcano, and by increases in volcanic gas emissions and temperatures. How close is the volcano to populated areas? This site uses cookies to assist with navigation, analyse your use of our services, collect data for ads personalisation and provide content from third parties. Scientists are constantly provided with data on what exactly is. Mt. A river has cut through the plain, revealing a cross-section of the lahar deposits. Over ~6,000 years, the volcano has experienced at, that moved hundreds of millions of cubic feet of debris. The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Tech Xplore in any form. In the end, these simulations will help get people around Rainier better prepared to evacuate during the next lahar. Lahars can be incredibly deadly if people aren't warned. This flow would hit Orting in about an hour and finally come to rest all the way down in Sumner and Puyallup near Tacoma (see above). They had an intertactive GIS map on their website, but there was no way to download the data. Strombolian Eruption Simulation Simulates an erupting volcano Java required Sliding Puzzle Game Put Rocky back together Java required Unscramble the Volcano Names Java required USA Volcano Matching Game Match the volcano to the state Java required Mount Rainier Connect-the-dots puzzle Java required Volcano Crossword Puzzle Java required (Map simplified from U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-428.) (USGS photograph by A. Each simulation involved 260 million cubic meters (9,180.6 million cubic feet) of rock and ice - a volume similar that of to the Electron Mudflow. A video showing a white plume ominously moving over Mount Rainier on Wednesday sparked concern that the active volcano in Washington state was about to erupt. A zone of flooding and post-lahar sedimentation is shown only in the Green and Duwamish River valleys (see Long-Term Effects of Lahars), because in other valleys it is included in the lahar hazard zone. The US Geological Survey classifies it as a very high threat volcano. Rainier, Washington State. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies NatCat and FinCat Correlation IMPACTS OF SEVERE NATURAL CATASTROPHES ON FINANCIAL MARKETS The Cambridge Global Risk Index aims to measure Her interests lie at the interface between physical science and critical decision makers, with a primary focus on the communication of science advice during natural . The NPS said there were at least 14 eruptions reported on Mount Rainier between 1820 and 1894. Routes connecting Tacoma to Seattle could be buried. Even without a specific disaster, the process of collecting tax parcel data and cross referencing that with data collected from Zillow or other real estate websites can be generalized to any area of interest. Get off of the valley floor in a hustle, he says. Objectives: Students will Conduct research and teach each other about the eruption of Mount St. Helens, utilizing cooperative . In addition, the USGS reports no. Lava flows, explosions, pyroclastic flows, etc.? "Since geologists discovered only a light layer of ash from that time, most of the 'eruptions' which people reported seeing were probably only dust clouds rising from large rockfalls or the cloud cap frequently seen over Mount Rainier," the NPS site said. At Mount Rainier, the risk from lahars is greater than from lava flows, volcanic ash fall, or other volcanic phenomena because some pathways for future lahars are densely populated and contain important infrastructure such as highways, bridges, ports, and pipelines. How close is the volcano to major flight routes? Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. Hypothetical Tahoma Glacier Headwall landslide and lahar flow, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of the Interior - U.S. Geological Survey, Hypothetical Tahoma Glacier Headwall landslide and lahar simulation, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of the Interior - U.S. Geological Survey, Hypothetical Tahoma Glacier Headwall lahar simulation flow route into Alder Lake, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of the Interior - U.S. Geological Survey, Hypothetical Tahoma Glacier Headwall lahar simulation scenario flow route into Alder Lake Dam, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of the Interior - U.S. Geological Survey. Yet, the danger of Rainier exists whether it is erupting or not. These would hit Lake Alder and likely cause the Alder Dam to spill over, a major potential hazard for those even further downstream (see below). This program takes into account such variables as rock volume, type, density, permeability (the measure of the ability of water to move through a rock), ice/snow amount, viscosity (how thick, sticky, or fluid the rock/water material is) and other factors to create different scenarios mapping probable lahar flow routes, speed, reach, and depth through the Puyallup and Nisqually River valleys. Rainier in Washington. Deposits in this simulation reached depths of six to 16 feet enough to bury your car or you. The system is in the process of getting an upgrade to. The clouds are common, especially near mountainous areas. Scott Heinze, with the Pierce County department of emergency management, recommends moving to higher ground fast. The USGS, in cooperation with the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network at the University of Washington, continuously monitors Mount Rainier and assesses potential hazards stemming from volcanic activity. 82 lines (66 sloc) 5.24 KB Raw Blame Mount Rainier Eruption Disaster Estimate Disaster Estimates Assessing the potential effects of a disaster is as important as it is complex. Mount Rainier National Park Service also looked at webcams, confirming the "activity" over the volcano was in fact a lenticular cloud. This sediment was rapidly eroded from the deposits of lahars caused by eruptions about 1,000 years ago, even though the lahars themselves did not extend much past present-day Auburn, which lies about 20 miles south of downtown Seattle. Although Mount Rainier has erupted less often and less explo-sively in recent millennia than its neighbor, Mount St. Helens, the proximity of large populations makes Mount Rainier a far greater hazard to life and property. Given measurable financial factors such as land and structural property it is possible to make a good prior estimate. Large Holocene mudflows from collapse have reached as far as the Puget Sound lowlands. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. Because of Mount Rainier's status as one of the country's most dangerous volcanoes, "it is heavily monitored," Terbush said. They thinned and spread out in the wide valleys downstream, slowing to 15 to 25 miles per hour. Credit: USGS. Especially since most recently on April 29th, 14,500 students and teachers showed that they can walk out of the hazard zones within that timeframe. But the water it would melt would create a much bigger hazard: A flash flood that would look like concrete and chew up everything in its path. Rainier in Washington seen from the Puyallup Valley. Credit: USGS. It would pull down trees. Stay tuned. Hopefully, the complex mysteries of volcanoes will diminish as geologists gain more insight through their study of Mount St. Helens," which had a sizable eruption in 1980. The most recent lahar from Rainier was the Electron flow that happened only ~500 years ago. Volcanoes often show signs of unrest, such as increased seismicity (earthquakes) and emission of volcanic gases and swelling of the volcano, days to months in advance of an eruption. We then aggregated all the at-risk property values to get our baseline estimate. The mountain has erupted before. USGS said it is potentially the most dangerous volcano in the Cascade Range due to its height, request earthquakes . Recent studies have revealed extensive layers of sandy sediment from Mount Rainier that extend to the Port of Seattle along the Green and Duwamish River valleys. St. Helens, Mt. Rescue workers may not be able to reach you immediately. Located near the Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia area, it is the largest Cascade volcano and one that we have proof can cause a major impact to this metropolitan area. Mount Rainier National Park officials quickly took to Twitter to dispel the rumor. Specifically, we accessed the Pierce, King, and Thurston County Tax Assessor offices to gather the taxable land and structure value, along with address and coordinates. What makes Mt. Sure, Rainier hasn't had a confirmed eruption since ~1450 CE, although there may have been small, unconfirmed puffs during the 1800s. This model could be easily generalized to other volcanic eruptions, and potentially even other disasters with definable boundaries such as flooding. The mountain, as locals call it, defines us as a region. This process allowed us to reach a baseline estimation of just under 20.5 billion dollars in total property damage caused by the lahar flow from a potential eruption of Mount Rainier. The simulations estimate that the lahars would be moving 8-10 million cubic feet, down the valleys. "This is just an impermanent piece on our. and Terms of Use. And the Washington Emergency Management Division also posted, "This is NOT a eruption.". Lahars cannot be predicted, but they can be detected. What could happen to Seattle and surrounding areas when Mount Rainier erupts? This mudflow likely killed over 20,000 people. Deposits of past lahars are found in all of the valleys that start on Mount Rainier's flanks. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Its total threat level score is 203.2. Our independent, nonprofit newsroom produces award-winning stories, podcasts and events. Rainier. Learn to recognize volcano evacuation route signs. Sign up for our email newsletter for the latest science news. Below are animated illustrations of two landslide scenarios demonstrating the flow and extent of high mobility lahars, one from a landslide off Sunset Amphitheater and one from a landslide off the Tahoma Glacier Headwall. Weak, hydrothermally altered rocks remain at high elevation on the volcano's west flank, and some of this material could be dislodged byearthquakesduring an eruptive period. 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston, VA 20192, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 12: Pacific Islands (American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). "We have looked at the cloud that has caused concern from multiple webcams and have determined that it is a lenticular cloud. Experience from around the world shows that moving to high ground off the valley floor is the only way to ensure safety during a lahar. When unrest is detected, scientists will notify emergency-management officials and increase monitoring efforts. At Rainier, the Pierce County government and the USGS has a lahar early warning system, where sensors along the river valleys can send a signal to towns below the volcano if a lahar is detected. The shattered carcass of a mountain lion, surrounded by footprints. In most cases, these flows were triggered during times of eruptions . The Mount Rainier Volcanic Hazards Response Plan, which was created by cooperating local, county, State, and Federal agencies, is on the Web. During the eruption of Mount Saint Helens in 1980, there were at least eight and a half weeks of precursory signals before the explosion. In both cases, the amount of material moving down the Nisqually and Puyallup River valleys down major lahars is astounding. Because small lahars are more common than large ones, most lahars would be less extensive than the hazard zone shown on the map and a few would be more extensive. Mount Rainier National Park officials have taken to Twitter to assure parkgoers that Mount Rainier was not erupting. And it would sound like a rocket launching. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. You signed in with another tab or window. 2022 The News Tribune (Tacoma, Wash.)Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Armero, Colombia, was battered in 1985 by lahars generated by an eruption of glacier-clad Nevado del Ruiz volcano. Phys.org is a part of Science X network. Location map of Mount Rainier and nearby communities, Mount Rainier National Park / U.S. Department of the Interior - U.S. Geological Survey, Sunset Amphitheater and Tahoma Glacier Headwall, Mount Rainier National Park / Google Maps. A Mount Rainier eruption could cause lahars, which are large volcanic mudflows to rip down the side of the mountain. The lava flows encounter those very steep slopes and make avalanches of hot rocks and gas that are hurtling down the mountain maybe 100 miles per hour or so, Driedger says. Rainier a decade volcano is its close proximity to the Puget Sound which is a very populated area. cubic feet of debris, enough to bury Manhattan under 130 feet of the stuff. This commit does not belong to any branch on this repository, and may belong to a fork outside of the repository. How big is that? This lahar, "only" ~9 billion cubic feet, came down the volcanoes west side and travelled down over 30 miles to reach what is now the town of Orting. to create simulations of potential lahars from the west side of Rainier -- the most likely spot for the next lahars -- and found that they could devastate towns well below the volcano's summit. bishop vesey's grammar school fees. Tacoma could face shortages of food and supplies. When geologist Carolyn Driedger talks about Mount Rainier, she feels like shes trash-talking. The Cowlitz Chimneys, to the east. The primary hazards associated with Mount Rainier's eruptions are debris and mud flows. Therefore, the Puyallup River valley and, to a lesser extent, the Nisqually River valley, whose basin includes some of the weakened rock, are at most risk from such events. New eruptions of Mount Rainier will most likely start with steam and ash explosions at the summit, and progress to the effusion of a small lava flow or the disintigration of steeply sloping lava flows as avalanches of hot rock and gas called a pyroclastic flow. Although seldom life threatening, volcanic ash fallout on the ground can be a nuisance to residents, affect utility and transportation systems, and entail substantial clean-up costs. The heavy, water-laden sediments of a lahar possess the consistency of wet cement, yet can move as fast as 45-50 mph (70-80 kph) over long distances, crushing and burying whatever lays in their path with deadly results to any inhabitants living along and near rivers and river valleys within and outside of Mount Rainier National Park. Most of the houses are two stories, but Heinze says thats not high enough for safety. We should be able to find a trail down here somewhere, Driedger says. They can be singular clouds or stacked like pancakes. The present summit was constructed within a large crater breached to the NE, formed by collapse during a major explosive eruption about 5,600 years ago that deposited the widespread Osceola Mudflow. Goal: To help students understand a complex, cataclysmic natural phenomenon by breaking it down into sequenced and simultaneous components, cooperatively researching the nature of those components and their effects, and visualizing the whole through dramatic simulation. The simulations estimate that the lahars would be moving 8-10 million cubic feet per second down the valleys. Mount Rainier National Park. Look at the mountain, we say in wonder. Mount Rainier is NOT erupting. This 5,600 year-old deposit, called the Osceola Mudflow, was formed when a massive landslide on the east side of Mount Rainier traveled north and west along the White River valley. New Simulations for Rainier's Potential Lahars, This threat of lahars from Rainier and other volcanoes means it is vital to understand what might happen when the next lahars happen. Everybody has all these positive vibes from the volcano, Driedger says. David L. George, Richard M. Iverson, and Charles M. Cannon, Modeling the Dynamics of Lahars that Originate as Landslides on the West Side of Mount Rainier, Washington, Open-File Report 20211118, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYTbfySHSxU, https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/nature/volcanic-features.htm#CP_JUMP_476338, https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-rainier/lahars-and-debris-flows-mount-rainier. The. But it was Mount St. Helens' 1980 eruption that catalyzed research for understanding volcanic risks . And when it comes into view on a sunny day, grand and gorgeous, as were barreling down Interstate 5, we interrupt each other to point it out. After its statewide rollout last week, ShakeAlert can now warn Washington residents when an earthquake is about to hit their area. Cloud over Mount Rainier stirs panic after people mistake it for sign of eruption. Save up to 70% off the cover price when you subscribe to Discover magazine. With a global reach of over 10 million monthly readers and featuring dedicated websites for science (Phys.org), Rainier. "Mount Rainier is NOT erupting," the tweet said. Dark gray shading indicates urbanized areas. Rainier is not erupting. Mount Rainier is a stratovolcano that started to grow about half a million years ago and has erupted as recently as 1,100 years ago. Unlike the Osceola lahar, the Electron lahar was not triggered by any eruption, but rather a landslide caused by weak rock and gravity. Located near the Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia area, it is the largest Cascade volcano and one that we have proof can cause a major impact to this metropolitan area. Get unlimited access for as low as $1.99/month, ) is what I think the most dangerous volcano in the United States might be. An alarming video of what appeared to be volcanic activity at Mount Rainier left people wondering if the volcano would erupt. No, experts say. Mount Rainier is an active volcano that first erupted about half a million years ago. The volcanic hazard map for Mt. This is just an impermanent piece on our landscape. Because of Rainier's great height and northerly location, glaciers have cut deeply into its lavas, making it appear deceptively older than it actually is. Mount Rainier is about 60 miles from downtown Seattle and rises to 14,411 feet in elevation. A cloud hugging the top of Mount Rainier, an active volcano, prompted concern in the greater Seattle metro area Wednesday that the mountain was erupting and led the National Park Service and U.S. Geological Survey to assure the public that there was no ongoing eruption. Data from 23 studies confirm theoretical predictions that households' adoption of earthquake hazard adjustments is correlated with their perceptions of the hazard and alternative adjustments, demographic characteristics, and social influences. A video of a cloud forming over Mount Rainier on Wednesday morning elicited cries of the coming apocalypse, or worse, an end to the Seattle Mariners' playoff hopes. The lahar hazard is not equal in all valleys. Though it doesn't have a history of explosive eruptions, Mount Rainier is the third-highest risk volcano in the U.S. Lahars created from the ash of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines still occur during heavy rains. And someday,after its done erupting,the same fate could await Mount Rainier. Past lahars probably traveled 45 to 50 miles per hour and were as much as 100 feet or more thick where confined in valleys near the volcano. It last erupted in 1894-95, when small summit explosions were reported by observers in Seattle and Tacoma. Studying old lahar deposits: Geologists study the deposits of past lahars to assess potential future hazards. Screenshot from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Adams, Mt. 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Message and is not a eruption. `` research and technology news service which covers a full of. With peril the system is in the Nisqually River valley to add to those installed. Not a eruption. `` volcano to major flight routes debris, enough to your... Later suffer increased flooding and progressive burial by remobilized sediment ago and has erupted as recently 1,100! ~500 years ago floors initially unaffected by a lahar could surge through the,... Had a major eruption or to be contacted back ) the houses are two stories, but says! History of deadly lahars and Interior - U.S. Geological Survey classifies it as PDF! Will end up in the Nisqually River valley to add to those installed! Be incredibly deadly if people are n't warned ultimately slowing, then stopping, to. What we mean by `` dangerous '' is fraught with peril s eruptions are debris and flows. Me how far it could cause lahars, which are large volcanic mudflows, also known lahars. 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